Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures settled 2 to 5 1/4 cents higher today. The debate continues about the number of acres likely to be lost to flooding in the WCB, as well as the number of bushels ruined in flooded grain bins and elevator piles. Weekly export inspections were much improved (+26%) from the previous week at 1.259 MMT but lagged the same week in 2018 by 186,000 MT. Shipments YTD are 5.1 MMT larger than last year (200.8 million bushels). The monthly USDA Grain Crushings report this afternoon confirmed corn use for ethanol totaled 402.9 million gallons in February. That was down 9.3% from January (with 3 fewer run days) and down 7.1% vs. year ago. YTD corn use for ethanol is 121 million bushels below last year.

May 19 Corn closed at $3.61 3/4, up 5 1/4 cents,

Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.71, up 4 3/4 cents,

Sep 19 Corn closed at $3.79 1/4, up 4 1/4 cents

Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.88 3/4, up 4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean futures closed 9 1/4 to 11 1/4 cents higher to start the week. Nearby meal futures were up $2.90/ton with soy oil up 21 points. USDA reported another 828,000 MT of soybeans were sold to China under the daily reporting system this morning. Those are for shipment before August 31. The weekly Export Inspections report showed 730,806 MT shipped in the week ending March 28. That was down from last week, but up 147,220 MT larger than the same week in 2018. Brokerage house FC Stone raised their Brazilian crop production estimate to 115.7 MMT from their previous 113.0 MMT. This afternoon’s USDA Fats & Oils report showed slower than expected crush in February at 162.76 million bushels. Soy oil stocks were 2.149 billion pounds, up from 2.004 billion in January. The average of the few trade estimates had been 2.2 billion pounds. Average oil yield was the highest of the year at 11.67 #/bushel.

May 19 Soybeans closed at $8.95 1/2, up 11 1/4 cents,

Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $9.08 3/4, up 11 cents,

Aug 19 Soybeans closed at $9.14 3/4, up 10 3/4 cents,

Sep 19 Soybeans closed at $9.19 1/4, up 9 3/4 cents,

May 19 Soybean Meal closed at $309.40, up $2.90,

May 19 Soybean Oil closed at $28.57, up $0.21

.--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures settled higher in the SRW and HRW contracts but mixed in MPLS spring wheat. Chicago SRW was up 4 1/2 to 6 3/4. KC HRW was up 3 to 4 1/2 cents while MPLS was down 1 3/4 (nearby May) to up 1 1/4. All wheat planting intentions were smaller than expected at 45.75 million on Friday, but the market was focused on the large March 1 stocks. Today the acreage got a hearing. This morning, USDA put weekly wheat export inspections at 418, 424 metric tonnes. That was up 8.8% from last week but six thousand tonnes below the same week in 2018. This afternoon’s first USDA weekly crop progress and condition report of the season shows 56% of the winter wheat crop in good or excellent condition, vs. 32% last year at this time.

May 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.62 3/4, up 5 cents,

May 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.34 1/2, up 4 1/2 cents,

May 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.53, down 1 3/4 cents

--Provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures settled 22 to 85 cents higher, backing off of midsession gains. Feeder cattle futures were $.10 to $1.82 higher. The CME feeder cattle index was up 68 cents on March 29 at $142.42. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher. USDA reported average Choice boxes this afternoon of $226.84, up 80 cents from Friday. Select boxes were quoted @ $219.33 and up 44 cents from the previous day. USDA estimated Monday cattle slaughter at 115,000 head. That would be 12,000 more than the same Monday a year ago, but 4,000 light vs. last Monday.

Apr 19 Cattle closed at $126.175, up $0.475,

Jun 19 Cattle closed at $119.475, up $0.475,

Aug 19 Cattle closed at $116.200, up $0.525,

Apr 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $145.450, up $0.200

May 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $148.875, up $0.100

Aug 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $156.700, up $0.450

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures closed $1.230 lower to $.42 higher on Monday. Neither of those changes was representative of the full body of work, with several contracts in single digit territory. The CME Lean Hog Index was up another $2.15 from the previous day @ $73.87 on March 28. April futures are $77.40, so the basis continues to firm to the benefit of hedgers. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was 82 cents higher in the PM report at $82.15 per cwt (i.e 82 cents per pound). Estimated daily hog slaughter for Monday was 476,000 head, up 2,000 from last Monday. The national base hog carcass value was 25 cents higher at $75.19 in the afternoon report. Regional numbers were not reported due to confidentiality restrictions.

Apr 19 Hogs closed at $77.400, up $0.025,

May 19 Hogs closed at $81.000, down $0.325

Jun 19 Hogs closed at $88.500, down $0.050

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures closed 10 lower to 47 higher today. The dollar is weaker and stock market futures are higher in supporting a demand argument. Cotton bounced from chart support on Friday and is trying to hold those gains. The main influence was the USDA Planting Intentions report, which showed only 13.78 million acres for 2019. The Cotlook A Index was down 100 points at 85.30 on March 29. The USDA Adjusted World Price (AWP) is 68.23 cents/lb, good through Thursday. USDA indicated this afternoon that 4% of the US cotton crop is planted (15 tracking states). That is ahead of the five year average of 3% but behind last year’s 6%.

May 19 Cotton closed at 77.360, down 25 points,

Jul 19 Cotton closed at 78.210, down 10 points

Oct 19 Cotton closed at 76.450, up 47 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

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