Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are starting November 1 1/4 to 2 cents lower. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange pegged this year’s corn planting progress at 40.2% of their 6.4 million hectares. At this time last year Argentinean corn was 35.5% planted for their expected 6.3 mil hec. The USDA Export Sales report showed corn exports continue to be way behind pace. The latest number is 65.46% of last year’s exports. The accumulated total exports have grown to 3.261 MMT, but that is only 39.17% of a year ago. Net sales from the week ending 10/24 were up 37.48% over the same week in 2018 at 549,138 MT. The IEG Vantage estimated corn yield increased to 168.6 bpa, raising their production forecast to 13.792 bil bushels.

DEC 19 Corn is at $3.88, down 2 cents,

MAR 19 Corn is at $3.96 3/4, down 2 cents,

MAY 20 Corn is at $4.03, down 1 3/4 cents

JUL 20 Corn is at $4.08 3/4, down 1 1/4 cents

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean futures start off the month trading 3 3/4 to 8 3/4 cents higher. Soybean meal is up $0.90/ton, with Soybean oil 18 points lower. Most of the soybeans delivered against November yesterday were re-delivered overnight, with a JPM customer stopping all 1,426 of them. USDA announced this morning a private sale of 132,000 MT of soybeans to China for delivery within the 19/20 MY. IEG has released their updated prediction for the 2019/20 soy crop, bumping up average yields by 0.5 bpa to 47. IEG also increased their expected soybean production number to 3.553 bil bushels.

NOV 19 Soybeans are at $9.25 1/2, up 8 3/4 cents,

JAN 19 Soybeans are at $9.37 3/4, up 5 1/2 cents,

MAR 20 Soybeans are at $9.50, up 4 3/4 cents,

MAY 20 Soybeans are at $9.60 3/4, up 3 3/4 cents,

DEC 19 Soybean Meal is at $305.30, up $0.90,

DEC 19 Soybean Oil is at $30.93, up $0.18

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures are making gains; up 2 3/4 cents for Chicago. The Minneapolis and KC futures are 3 1/4 to 4 cents higher. The USDA’s weekly Export Sales Report yesterday indicated 493,761 MT of net sales for the week ending 10/24, at the top end of expectations. HRW held 60% of the share of sales. SRW had a 16.79% share of the sales, and HRS held a 19% share. All wheat accumulated exports were reported 25.52% ahead of last MY’s pace. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange revised their Argentine wheat production lower by 1 MMT to 18.8 MMT.

DEC 19 CBOT Wheat is at $5.11 1/2, up 2 3/4 cents,

DEC 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.23, up 3 1/4 cents,

DEC 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.28, up 4 cents

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

The nearby contracts are making gains of $1.20 to $1.65 cents for the first day of Nov. There was some net new selling interest yesterday, with preliminary open interest rising 5,178 contracts on a weaker price. Those bears are feeling the heat this morning. Feeder cattle futures are hovering around the dollar mark, seeing gains of 80 cents to $1.22 for nearbys. They are currently at a premium to the Index. The 10/30 CME Feeder Cattle index gained $0.15 to $145.23. We have higher wholesale boxed beef prices so far today, with the Chc/Sel spread at $25.43 .Choice boxes are $0.16 higher at $232.34, and Select boxes are 42 cents higher $206.91. Thursday, Kansas saw light cash trading steady at $112. Nebraska dressed sales were reported at $180 this morning. The USDA week to date estimated FI cattle slaughter finished Halloween at 466,000 head, which is down by 14,000 head over the same period last year.

DEC 19 Cattle are at $118.875, up $1.650,

FEB 19 Cattle are at $123.825, up $1.475,

APR 20 Cattle are at $125.150, up $1.200,

NOV 19 Feeder Cattle are at $148.425, up $0.825

JAN 19 Feeder Cattle are at $145.475, up $0.800

MAR 19 Feeder Cattle are at $144.600, up $1.225

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Hog futures are under pressure. So far at midday prices are 77 cents to $2.12 lower. USDA reported that weekly pork export sales through 10/24 were 30,112 MT; a 56.5% increase over last week. That wasn’t enough to satisfy would be hog bulls, given strong 4th quarter US pork production. The CME Lean Hog Index for 10/30 was 29 cents lower at $62.74. The USDA pork carcass cutout is dropping so far this Friday, down by $1.36 to $74.69. The national average base hog price starts off the new month 54 cents higher to $49.59. USDA estimated WTD hog slaughter was 1.945 million head. That is 27,000 behind last week’s pace.

DEC 19 Hogs are at $63.875, down $2.125,

FEB 19 Hogs are at $72.050, down $1.275

APR 20 Hogs are at $79.075, down $0.775

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures start off November with 17 point losses in the Dec contract. Mar through Jul contracts are 4 to 11 cents higher. December finished up 363 points for the month of October. Accumulated exports for cotton grew 6.76% on the week, and as of 10/24 were outpacing last MY by 18.51%. Accumulated exports have consistently been above last MY levels through the first 13 weeks. Online cash trades this week on the Seam were 15,371 bales as of 10/30, having added another 7,293 on Wednesday. The Cotlook A Index was up 1 for 10/31 to 76.45 cents/lb. The weekly AWP from 10/31 is 57.33 cents/lb and will be valid through next Thursday.

DEC 19 Cotton is at 64.27, down 17 points,

MAR 19 Cotton is at 65.92, up 4 points

MAY 20 Cotton is at 66.98, up 11 points

JUL 20 Cotton is at 67.69, up 5 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

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