Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are 2 to 3 cents lower this morning. They closed fractionally lower on Friday, with Dec futures gaining 2 1/2 on the week. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange pegged this year’s corn planting progress at 40.2% of their 6.4 million hectares (15.815 million acres). At this time last year Argentine corn was 35.5% planted for their expected 6.3 mil HA (15.568 mil ac). The CFTC report showed managed money spec funds expanded their net short position by 9,282 contracts from the previous week. They were net short 85,337 contracts as of 10/29. The IEG Vantage group estimated US corn yield increased to 168.6 bpa, raising their production forecast to 13.792 bil bushels. Brokerage firm FCS is using 170 bpa. USDA’s first estimate for 2020 corn acres is 94.5 million. The next revision will be in February for the Outlook Forum.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures start off Monday UNCH to fractionally lower. The Friday close was 4 to 7 1/2 cents higher. First of the month investment money was in play, with preliminary open interest rising 7,413 contracts. Soybean meal was down $0.50/ton but finished the week 60 cents/ton higher. Soybean oil finished the first trading day in November with a 28 point gain. The USDA CAIR Fats & Oils report showed an 8.46% reduction in September beans crushed vs. August, reported at 4.87 MMT. The Commitment of Traders report showed that as of 10/29 managed money specs held a 72,325 contract net long position, having expanded it by 3,503 contracts over the previous Tuesday. That group has been net long for 4 weeks now. IEG has released their updated prediction for the 2019/20 soy crop, bumping up US average yield by 0.5 bpa to 47. IEG also increased their expected soybean production number to 3.553 bil bushels. The FCS brokerage firm put their yield estimate at 47.5 bpa. USDA’s preliminary estimate for 2020 has soybean acreage rebounding to 84.0 million.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures are 4 to 5 cents lower in all three contract markets. Australia got some short term drought relief in NSW, with up to 4 inch totals. Chicago was up 7 1/4 cents on Friday but slipped 1 3/4 cents lower for the week. Preliminary open interest increased 3,616 contracts on the Friday SRW rally. The KC futures closed 6 1/4 higher Friday and gained 2 cents on the week. Minneapolis HRS wheat futures lost 7 3/4 cents on the week. CFTC released their commitment of traders report, showing positions for all of the wheat futures as of 10/29. Chicago wheat still featured a net long by managed money, although the position shrank by 7,057 contracts from the previous week. Kansas City wheat saw an increase to the fund net short position, at 29,389 contracts. Funds reversed course and added to their net long in MPLS wheat. As of Tuesday, they were net long 9,362 contracts.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



The nearby live cattle contracts made gains of $1.62 to $2.45 on Friday, for a $3.60 gain on the week. Feeder cattle futures closed Friday higher, with gains of $1.75 to $1.52 for nearbys. Nov feeder cattle futures gained $3.75 wk/wk. The 10/30 CME Feeder Cattle index gained $0.76 to $145.99. As of 10/29 managed money spec funds were net long cattle futures by 40,467 contracts. The CFTC reported that their net long position had increased by 9,253 contracts over the week. In feeder cattle the funds were net short. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher on Friday. Choice and select boxes both closed up $1.02 at $233.20, and $206.91 respectively. Nebraska and Colorado saw $115 cash cattle bids with most trades between $112 and $114. Nebraska dressed sales were reported at $180. The USDA week to date FI cattle slaughter was estimated at 655,000 head through Saturday, the big Saturday numbers allow for a catch up to last year’s pace to finish the week 2,000 head more.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Hog futures closed $0.37 to $1.55 lower on Friday. Managed money was shown, by the Commitment of Traders Report from Friday, holding a shrinking net long for lean hog futures as of 10/29. The CME Lean Hog Index for 10/30 was 29 cents lower at $62.74. The USDA pork carcass finished the first day of November down by 41 cents to $75.64. The national average base hog price starts off the new month with a 10 cent dip to $48.95. USDA estimated weekly hog slaughter was 2.669 million head. The 2019 total slaughter estimate was 107.313 million head.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures are 19 to 31 points higher this morning after they finished November’s first day of trading with 16 to 20 point gains. Nearby futures were down 67 points for the week. The US dollar index is firmer this morning, bouncing from 97.00 after a 3-session retreat following the Fed rate cut. The CFTC reported that managed money’s net short in cotton actually grew by 1,469 contracts to 6,098 as of 10/29. Online cash trades from the Seam saw 851 bales sold on Halloween. The Cotlook A Index was up 1 for 10/31 to 76.45 cents/lb. The weekly AWP from 10/31 is 57.33 cents/lb and will be valid through next Thursday.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

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