Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are currently to 1 cent per bushel lower after posting fractional to 1 1/2 cent gains in most contracts on Tuesday. The Quarterly Grain Stocks report on Friday is expected to show 12.092 bbu of corn on hand on Dec 1 according to a Reuters survey. That would be down 475 mbu from last Dec 1 if realized. Final 2018 production numbers are estimated to see a yield of 177.9 bpa, down 1 bpa from the November update. Weekly ethanol stocks and production data will be updated on Wednesday from the EIA. USDA confirmed this week that 1.930 MMT of DDGs were produced in the US during November. That was down from 1.997 MMT a year ago and again illustrates the impact of late 2018 ethanol plant shutdowns in the face of poor margins.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures are trading 1/4 to 1 cent lower as we head into the morning break. They ended the Tuesday session with most nearby contracts 1 to 2 1/2 cents higher Meal futures were down $1.10/ton, with soy oil 25 points higher. Private export sales of 2.603 MMT of soybeans to China and 274,000 MT to unknown were reported by the USDA yesterday morning. Ahead of Friday’s USDA reports, traders estimate Dec 1 soybean stocks at 3.743 bbu, which would be 582 mbu above last year. The Crop Production report is expected to show US soybean yield updated to 51.8 bpa, down 0.3 bpa from November. Stats Canada Canadian canola stocks were tallied at 14.552 MMT on Dec 31, which is 4.9% larger than this time last year.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures are mostly 3/4 to 2 1/4 cents per bushel lower this morning. They ended Tuesdayy with the three exchanges steady to 1 1/2 cents higher in the nearby contracts. Spreaders were active, as new crop winter wheat contracts were 4 to 8 cents lower. Prior to Friday’s USDA reports, the average trade estimate for all wheat stocks on December 31 is 1.957 bbu. If realized, that would be nearly 84 mbu larger than a year ago. Japan is seeking a total of 131,165 MT of Australian, Canadian and US wheat in a tender that closes on Thursday, with 58,492 MT US specific. Tuesday morning’s Stats Canada report showed that Dec 31 wheat stocks were slightly lower than last year at 23.233 MMT. Durum stocks were up 12.5% from last year at 5.328 MMT, with other wheat stocks down 3.5%.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures were steady to 97.5 cents higher on Tuesday. Feeder cattle futures were mixed with most front months 17.5 to 40 cents lower and deferred contracts a nickel to 20 cents higher. The CME feeder cattle index was up 53 cents on February 4 at $141.54. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower on Tuesday afternoon, with the Ch/Select spread at $3.92. Choice boxes were down 63 cents at $217.02 with Select 31 cents lower at $213.10. This week’s USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter is 236,000 head through Tuesday. That is down 1,000 head from last week and 7,000 above the same week last year.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean Hog futures posted 95 cent to $1.45 losses in the front months on Tuesday. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 23 cents from the previous day @ $57.41 on February 1. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down $1.90 on Tuesday afternoon at an average weighted price of $66.22. The national base cash hog carcass value was down 39 cents in the PM report, with a weighted average of $50.16. USDA estimated FI hog slaughter at 950,000 head through Tuesday. That is 14,000 above the previous week and 27,000 head larger than the same week last year.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures are trading 2 to 21 points lower this morning. The dollar is firmer. Cotton futures were 30 to 64 points higher on Turnaround Tuesday. Last Friday, a total of 16,358 bales of cotton was sold on The Seam at an average price of 68.78 cents. Monday’s trade was a little lighter at just 508 bales @ 58.15 cents. The Cotlook A Index was down 75 points on February 4 to 83.00 cents/lb. The USDA Adjusted World Price is 65.07 cents/lb through Thursday, up 17 points from the previous week. USDA will release updated production data on Friday, which was delayed in January. CFTC released year end data on Tuesday, confirming that the speculative net long in cotton had dwindled to only 5,556 contracts as of December 31.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

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