Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are trading 2 to 3 cents higher this morning. They posted 2 to 2 1/4 cent gains in most front months on Friday, but May was down 3% on the week. The USDA Grain Crushing report showed 444.02 mbu of corn used for ethanol production in January. That was down 3.6% from December and 6.74% lower than last year. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report indicated that specs added another 71,582 contracts to their net short position on Feb 19 to take it to -86,275 contracts in corn futures and options. Corn commitments for export (shipped and outstanding sales) are 0.7% larger than this time last year. As of Feb 21, they were 64% of USDA’s export projection, with the 5-year average at 71% for that date.



Soybean futures are mostly 5 to 6 cents higher this morning. They ended the Friday session positive, after spending a majority of the day in negative territory. Meal futures were up $1/ton in the nearby contract, with soy oil a point lower. May soybeans were 1.33% lower for the week. USDA January soybean crush totaled 182.85 mbu, slightly lower than December, but 4.7% larger yr/yr. Soy oil stocks totaled 2.004 billion pounds. Export commitments for soybeans are now 14.5% below a year ago, catching up with the large sales. USDA is projecting a 12% drop for the full year, with the commitments 76% of that estimate vs. the 89% average for this date. Brazil’s trade ministry tallied the country’s soybean exports in February at 6.091 MMT, more than double January and the same month in 2018.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures are currently UNCH to 2 cents higher in the Chicago and KC contracts. Minneapolis spring wheat is 1 to 5 cents lower. They saw some strength at the end of the Friday session, but closed with most CBT and MPLS contracts steady to 5 cents lower. KC was firm to a penny higher. On the week May Chicago was down 7.02%, with KC 4.56% lower and MPLS 1.11% in the red. US wheat export commitments are now 1.5% larger than last year at this time. They are still just 81% of the USDA estimate (1 bbu) with the normal pace at 94%. Jordan is tendering for 120,000 MT of wheat, with offers due by March 5. IKAR raised their 2019 Russian wheat estimate by 0.9 MMT to 78.5 MMT.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures saw slight to 37.5 cent gains in most contracts on Friday, with April down 30 cents. April was up 0.52% for the full week. Feeder cattle futures were 20 cents to $1.65 lower in the front months, with deferred contracts higher. March was down 1.17% for the week. The CME feeder cattle index was down 71 cents on February 28 at $139.23. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher on Friday afternoon with the Ch/Select spread at $4.50. Choice boxes were up $1.34 at $221.29 with Select $1.52 higher at $216.79. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter at 603,000 head through Saturday. That is up 26,000 head from the previous week but 8,000 head below the same week in 2018. Cash trade was mostly $128 in the South, with $128-129 in the North and even some $130 according to USDA data. Dressed sales were around $205.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean Hog futures were higher in the nearby contracts on Friday, with back months lower. April was up 1.71% for the full week. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 18 cents from the previous day @ $52.64 on February 27. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up $1.43 on Friday afternoon at an average weighted price of $61.92. The national base hog carcass value was up 33 cents on Friday afternoon, with a weighted average of $45.01. USDA estimated weekly FI hog slaughter at 2.449 million head. That was down 45,000 head from the previous week but 30,000 head larger than last year.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures were trading 40 to 51 points higher overnight. They posted 50 to 103 point gains in most contracts on Friday. In a tweet after the close, President Trump indicated he asked China to remove all tariffs on US ag products immediately based on the fact that discussions are moving along and the March 1 tariffs were delayed. As of Monday morning, there had been no official Chinese response. As of Feb 19, money managers in cotton futures and options increased their net short position by 4,713 contracts to 18,854 contracts. The Cotlook A Index was up 25 points on February 28 to 80.35 cents/lb. The USDA Adjusted World Price was updated to 62.67 cents/ lb, up 87 points from the previous week. Upland cotton export commitments are now 9.2% below the same week a year ago, with lackluster sales the past several weeks. They are still on pace to meet the USDA projection, at 86% of the 15 million bales vs. the 85% average.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
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E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com

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